Early reports of epidemiological parameters of the COVID-19 pandemic
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5365/wpsar.2020.11.3.011Abstract
Background: The emergence of a new pathogen requires a rapid assessment of its transmissibility, to inform appropriate public health interventions.
Methods: The peer-reviewed literature published between 1 January and 30 April 2020 on COVID-19 in PubMed was searched. Estimates of the incubation period, serial interval and reproduction number for COVID-19 were obtained and compared.
Results: A total of 86 studies met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 33 estimated the mean incubation period (4–7 days) and 15 included estimates of the serial interval (mean 4–8 days; median length 4–5 days). Fifty-two studies estimated the reproduction number. Although reproduction number estimates ranged from 0.3 to 14.8, in 33 studies (63%), they fell between 2 and 3.
Discussion: Studies calculating the incubation period and effective reproduction number were published from the beginning of the pandemic until the end of the study period (30 April 2020); however, most of the studies calculating the serial interval were published in April 2020. The calculated incubation period was similar over the study period and in different settings, whereas estimates of the serial interval and effective reproduction number were setting-specific. Estimates of the serial interval were shorter at the end of the study period as increasing evidence of pre-symptomatic transmission was documented and as jurisdictions enacted outbreak control measures. Estimates of the effective reproduction number varied with the setting and the underlying model assumptions. Early analysis of epidemic parameters provides vital information to inform the outbreak response.
References
World Health Organization. Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) Situation Report – 133 [Internet]. Geneva: World Health Organisation; 2020 Jun [cited 2020 Jun 2]. Available from: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200601-covid-19-sitrep-133.pdf?sfvrsn=9a56f2ac_4
Farewell VT, Herzberg AM, James KW, Ho LM, Leung GM. SARS incubation and quarantine times: when is an exposed individual known to be disease free? Statistics in Medicine. 2005 Nov 30;24(22):3431–45.
Nishiura H. Early efforts in modeling the incubation period of infectious diseases with an acute course of illness. Emerging Themes in Epidemiology. 2007 May 11;4(1):2.
Nishiura H. Determination of the appropriate quarantine period following smallpox exposure: an objective approach using the incubation period distribution. International Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Health. 2009 Jan;212(1):97–104.
Fine PEM. The interval between successive cases of an infectious disease. American Journal of Epidemiology. 2003 Dec 1;158(11):1039–47.
Ma Y, Horsburgh CR, White LF, Jenkins HE. Quantifying TB transmission: a systematic review of reproduction number and serial interval estimates for tuberculosis. Epidemiology and Infection. 2018/07/04. 2018;146(12):1478–94.
Becker NG, Wang D, Clements M. Type and quantity of data needed for an early estimate of transmissibility when an infectious disease emerges. Vol. 15, Eurosurveillance. 2010. p. 19603.
Caley P, Philp DJ, McCracken K. Quantifying social distancing arising from pandemic influenza. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 2008;5(23):631–9.
Nishiura H, Chowell G, Safan M, Castillo-Chavez C. Pros and cons of estimating the reproduction number from early epidemic growth rate of influenza A (H1N1) 2009. Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling. 2010 Jan 7;7(1):1.
Mercer GN, Glass K, Becker NG. Effective reproduction numbers are commonly overestimated early in a disease outbreak. Statistics in Medicine. 2011 Apr 30;30(9):984–94.
Chang T-H, Wu J-L, Chang L-Y. Clinical characteristics and diagnostic challenges of pediatric COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Journal of the Formosan Medical Association. 2020 Apr 16;
Park M, Cook AR, Lim JT, Sun Y, Dickens BL. A systematic review of COVID-19 epidemiology based on current evidence. Journal of Clinical Medicine. 2020 Mar 31;9(4).
Balla M, Merugu GP, Patel M, Koduri NM, Gayam V, Adapa S, et al. COVID-19, modern pandemic: A systematic review from front-line health care providers’ perspective. Journal of Clinical Medicine Research. 2020 Apr;12(4):215–29.
Alimohamadi Y, Taghdir M, Sepandi M. Estimate of the basic reproduction number for COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health. 2020 Mar 20;53(3):151–7.
Leung C. The difference in the incubation period of 2019 novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) infection between travelers to Hubei and non-travelers: The need of a longer quarantine period. Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology. 2020 Mar 18;1–8.
Le TQM, Takemura T, Moi ML, Nabeshima T, Nguyen LKH, Hoang VMP, et al. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 shedding by travelers, Vietnam, 2020. Emerging Infectious Diseases. 2020 Apr 2;26(7).
Huang L, Zhang X, Zhang X, Wei Z, Zhang L, Xu J, et al. Rapid asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 during the incubation period demonstrating strong infectivity in a cluster of youngsters aged 16-23 years outside Wuhan and characteristics of young patients with COVID-19: a prospective contact-tracing study. The Journal of Infection. 2020 Apr 10;
Zhao D, Yao F, Wang L, Zheng L, Gao Y, Ye J, et al. A comparative study on the clinical features of COVID-19 pneumonia to other pneumonias. Clinical Infectious Diseases. 2020 Mar 12;
Backer JA, Klinkenberg D, Wallinga J. Incubation period of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections among travellers from Wuhan, China, 20-28 January 2020. Eurosurveillance. 2020 Feb;25(5).
Bi Q, Wu Y, Mei S, Ye C, Zou X, Zhang Z, et al. Epidemiology and transmission of COVID-19 in 391 cases and 1286 of their close contacts in Shenzhen, China: a retrospective cohort study. The Lancet Infectious Diseases. 2020 Apr 27;
Nie X, Fan L, Mu G, Tan Q, Wang M, Xie Y, et al. Epidemiological characteristics and incubation period of 7,015 confirmed cases with coronavirus disease 2019 outside Hubei Province in China. The Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2020 Apr 27;
Chan JF-W, Yuan S, Kok K-H, To KK-W, Chu H, Yang J, et al. A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster. The Lancet. 2020 Feb 15;395(10223):514–23.
Li Q, Guan X, Wu P, Wang X, Zhou L, Tong Y, et al. Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia. The New England Journal of Medicine. 2020 Jan 29;
Ki M, Task Force For nCoV. Epidemiologic characteristics of early cases with 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) disease in Republic of Korea. Epidemiology and Health. 2020 Feb 9;e2020007.
Jiang X, Rayner S, Luo M-H. Does SARS-CoV-2 has a longer incubation period than SARS and MERS? Journal of Medical Virology. 2020 Feb 13;
Linton NM, Kobayashi T, Yang Y, Hayashi K, Akhmetzhanov AR, Jung S-M, et al. Incubation period and other epidemiological characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus infections with right truncation: A statistical analysis of publicly available case data. Journal of Clinical Medicine. 2020 Feb 17;9(2).
Xu X-W, Wu X-X, Jiang X-G, Xu K-J, Ying L-J, Ma C-L, et al. Clinical findings in a group of patients infected with the 2019 novel coronavirus (SARS-Cov-2) outside of Wuhan, China: retrospective case series. BMJ. 2020 Feb 19;368:m606.
Tian S, Hu N, Lou J, Chen K, Kang X, Xiang Z, et al. Characteristics of COVID-19 infection in Beijing. The Journal of Infection. 2020 Feb 26;
Cai J, Xu J, Lin D, Yang Z, Xu L, Qu Z, et al. A case series of children with 2019 novel coronavirus infection: Clinical and epidemiological features. Clinical Infectious Diseases. 2020 Feb 28;
Guan W-J, Ni Z-Y, Hu Y, Liang W-H, Ou C-Q, He J-X, et al. Clinical characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 in China. The New England Journal of Medicine. 2020 Feb 28;
Liu J, Liao X, Qian S, Yuan J, Wang F, Liu Y, et al. Community transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, Shenzhen, China, 2020. Emerging Infectious Diseases [Internet]. 2020 Jun 17;26(6). Available from: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0239_article
Lauer SA, Grantz KH, Bi Q, Jones FK, Zheng Q, Meredith HR, et al. The incubation period of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) From publicly reported confirmed cases: Estimation and application. Annals of Internal Medicine. 2020 Mar 10;
Pung R, Chiew CJ, Young BE, Chin S, Chen MI-C, Clapham HE, et al. Investigation of three clusters of COVID-19 in Singapore: implications for surveillance and response measures. Lancet. 2020 Mar 16;
Chang D, Mo G, Yuan X, Tao Y, Peng X, Wang F, et al. Time Kinetics of Viral Clearance and Resolution of Symptoms in Novel Coronavirus Infection. Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2020 Mar 23;
Jin X, Lian J-S, Hu J-H, Gao J, Zheng L, Zhang Y-M, et al. Epidemiological, clinical and virological characteristics of 74 cases of coronavirus-infected disease 2019 (COVID-19) with gastrointestinal symptoms. Gut. 2020 Mar 24;
Zhang J, Litvinova M, Wang W, Wang Y, Deng X, Chen X, et al. Evolving epidemiology and transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 outside Hubei province, China: a descriptive and modelling study. The Lancet Infectious Diseases. 2020 Apr 2;
Zhu Y, Chen YQ. On a statistical transmission model in analysis of the early phase of COVID-19 outbreak. Statistics in Biosciences. 2020 Apr 2;1–17.
Han Y-N, Feng Z-W, Sun L-N, Ren X-X, Wang H, Xue Y-M, et al. A comparative-descriptive analysis of clinical characteristics in. Journal of Medical Virology. 2020 Apr 6;
Shen Q, Guo W, Guo T, Li J, He W, Ni S, et al. Novel coronavirus infection in children outside of Wuhan, China. Pediatric Pulmonology. 2020 Apr 7;
Sanche S, Lin YT, Xu C, Romero-Severson E, Hengartner N, Ke R. High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2. Emerging Infectious Diseases. 2020 Apr 7;26(7).
Ghinai I, Woods S, Ritger KA, McPherson TD, Black SR, Sparrow L, et al. Community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 at two family gatherings - Chicago, Illinois, February-March 2020. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. 2020 Apr 17;69(15):446–50.
Zheng F, Tang W, Li H, Huang Y-X, Xie Y-L, Zhou Z-G. Clinical characteristics of 161 cases of corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Changsha. European Review for Medical and Pharmacological Sciences. 2020 Mar;24(6):3404–10.
Xia X-Y, Wu J, Liu H-L, Xia H, Jia B, Huang W-X. Epidemiological and initial clinical characteristics of patients with family aggregation of COVID-19. Journal of Clinical Virology. 2020 Apr 12;127:104360.
Chen J, Zhang Z-Z, Chen Y-K, Long Q-X, Tian W-G, Deng H-J, et al. The clinical and immunological features of pediatric COVID-19 patients in China. Genes & Diseases. 2020 Apr 14;
Song W, Li J, Zou N, Guan W, Pan J, Xu W. Clinical features of pediatric patients with coronavirus disease (COVID-19). J Clin Virol. 2020 Apr 24;127:104377.
Jiang Y, Niu W, Wang Q, Zhao H, Meng L, Zhang C. Characteristics of a family cluster of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Henan, China. The Journal of Infection. 2020 Apr 23;
Yu X, Sun X, Cui P, Pan H, Lin S, Han R, et al. Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 333 confirmed cases with coronavirus disease 2019 in Shanghai, China. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases. 2020 Apr 29;
Nishiura H, Linton NM, Akhmetzhanov AR. Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2020 Mar 4;
Du Z, Xu X, Wu Y, Wang L, Cowling BJ, Meyers LA. Serial interval of COVID-19 among publicly reported confirmed cases. Emerging Infectious Diseases. 2020 Mar 19;26(6).
Wu JT, Leung K, Bushman M, Kishore N, Niehus R, de Salazar PM, et al. Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China. Nature Medicine. 2020 Apr 1;26(4):506–10.
Ji T, Chen H-L, Xu J, Wu L-N, Li J-J, Chen K, et al. Lockdown contained the spread of 2019 novel coronavirus disease in Huangshi city, China: Early epidemiological findings. Clinical Infectious Diseases. 2020 Apr 7;
Wang Z, Ma W, Zheng X, Wu G, Zhang R. Household transmission of SARS-CoV-2. The Journal of Infection. 2020 Apr 10;
He X, Lau EHY, Wu P, Deng X, Wang J, Hao X, et al. Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19. Nature Medicine [Internet]. 2020 Apr 15; Available from: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-0869-5
Kwok KO, Wong VWY, Wei WI, Wong SYS, Tang JW-T. Epidemiological characteristics of the first 53 laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 epidemic in Hong Kong, 13 February 2020. Eurosurveillance. 2020 Apr;25(16).
Ganyani T, Kremer C, Chen D, Torneri A, Faes C, Wallinga J, et al. Estimating the generation interval for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) based on symptom onset data, March 2020. Vol. 25, Eurosurveillance. 2020. p. 2000257.
Wu P, Hao X, Lau EHY, Wong JY, Leung KSM, Wu JT, et al. Real-time tentative assessment of the epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus infections in Wuhan, China, as at 22 January 2020. Eurosurveillance. 2020 Jan;25(3).
Choi SC, Ki M. Estimating the reproductive number and the outbreak size of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using mathematical model in Republic of Korea. Epidemiology and Health. 2020 Mar 12;e2020011.
Rocklov J, Sjodin H, Wilder-Smith A. COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: estimating the epidemic potential and effectiveness of public health countermeasures. Journal of Travel Medicine. 2020 Feb 28;
Lipsitch M, Cohen T, Cooper B, Robins JM, Ma S, James L, et al. Transmission dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome. Science. 2003/05/23. 2003 Jun 20;300(5627):1966–70.
Cauchemez S, Epperson S, Biggerstaff M, Swerdlow D, Finelli L, Ferguson NM. Using routine surveillance data to estimate the epidemic potential of emerging zoonoses: Application to the emergence of US swine origin influenza A H3N2v virus. PLOS Medicine. 2013 Mar 5;10(3):e1001399.
Riou J, Althaus CL. Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), December 2019 to January 2020. Eurosurveillance. 2020 Jan;25(4).
Zhao S, Lin Q, Ran J, Musa SS, Yang G, Wang W, et al. Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2020 Jan 30;92:214–7.
Wu JT, Leung K, Leung GM. Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study. Lancet. 2020 Jan 31;
Zhao S, Musa SS, Lin Q, Ran J, Yang G, Wang W, et al. Estimating the unreported number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases in China in the first half of January 2020: A data-driven modelling analysis of the early outbreak. Journal of Clinical Medicine. 2020 Feb 1;9(2).
Tang B, Wang X, Li Q, Bragazzi NL, Tang S, Xiao Y, et al. Cases as defined by National and Provincial Health and Health Committees. Journal of Clinical Medicine. 2020 Feb 7;9(2).
Zhou T, Liu Q, Yang Z, Liao J, Yang K, Bai W, et al. Preliminary prediction of the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV. Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine. 2020 Feb 12;
Jung S-M, Akhmetzhanov AR, Hayashi K, Linton NM, Yang Y, Yuan B, et al. Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases. J Clin Med. 2020 Feb 14;9(2).
Zhang S, Diao M, Yu W, Pei L, Lin Z, Chen D. Estimation of the reproductive number of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2020 Feb 22;
Cori A, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Cauchemez S. A new framework and software to estimate time-varying reproduction numbers during epidemics. American Journal of Epidemiology. 2013 Nov 1;178(9):1505–12.
Lai A, Bergna A, Acciarri C, Galli M, Zehender G. Early phylogenetic estimate of the effective reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2. Journal of Medical Virology. 2020 Feb 25;
Chen T-M, Rui J, Wang Q-P, Zhao Z-Y, Cui J-A, Yin L. A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus. Infectious Diseases of Poverty. 2020 Feb 28;9(1):24.
Mizumoto K, Chowell G. Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the Diamond Princess cruises ship, 2020. Infectious Disease Modelling. 2020;5:264–70.
Fang Y, Nie Y, Penny M. Transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak and effectiveness of government interventions: A data-driven analysis. Journal of Medical Virology. 2020 Mar 6;
Zhou WK, Wang AL, Xia F, Xiao YN, Tang SY. Effects of media reporting on mitigating spread of COVID-19 in the early phase of the outbreak. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering. 2020 Mar 10;17(3):2693–707.
Kucharski AJ, Russell TW, Diamond C, Liu Y, Edmunds J, Funk S, et al. Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study. The Lancet Infectious Diseases. 2020 Mar 11;
Yang CY, Wang J. A mathematical model for the novel coronavirus epidemic in Wuhan, China. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering. 2020 Mar 11;17(3):2708–24.
Zhao S, Chen H. Modeling the epidemic dynamics and control of COVID-19 outbreak in China. Quantitative Biology. 2020 Mar 11;1–9.
Kuniya T. Prediction of the epidemic peak of coronavirus disease in Japan, 2020. Journal of Clinical Medicine. 2020 Mar 13;9(3).
Remuzzi A, Remuzzi G. COVID-19 and Italy: what next? Lancet. 2020 Mar 13;
Li R, Pei S, Chen B, Song Y, Zhang T, Yang W, et al. Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2). Science. 2020 Mar 16;
Shim E, Tariq A, Choi W, Lee Y, Chowell G. Transmission potential and severity of COVID-19 in South Korea. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2020 Mar 17;
Yuan J, Li M, Lv G, Lu ZK. Monitoring transmissibility and mortality of COVID-19 in Europe. Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Mar 28;95:311–5.
Anastassopoulou C, Russo L, Tsakris A, Siettos C. Data-based analysis, modelling and forecasting of the COVID-19 outbreak. PLoS One. 2020;15(3):e0230405.
Ferretti L, Wymant C, Kendall M, Zhao L, Nurtay A, Abeler-Dörner L, et al. Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing. Science. 2020 May 8;368(6491):eabb6936.
Huang R, Liu M, Ding Y. Spatial-temporal distribution of COVID-19 in China and its prediction: A data-driven modeling analysis. The Journal of Infection in Developing Countries [Internet]. 2020 Mar 31 [cited 2020 May 16];14(03). Available from: https://www.jidc.org/index.php/journal/article/view/32235084
Tian H, Liu Y, Li Y, Wu C-H, Chen B, Kraemer MUG, et al. An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the. Science. 2020 Mar 31;
Zhao S, Stone L, Gao D, Musa SS, Chong MKC, He D, et al. Imitation dynamics in the mitigation of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China from 2019 to 2020. Annals of Translational Medicine. 2020 Apr;8(7):448.
Pan A, Liu L, Wang C, Guo H, Hao X, Wang Q, et al. Association of Public Health Interventions With the Epidemiology of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Wuhan, China. JAMA. 2020 Apr 10;
Abbott S, Hellewell J, Munday J, Funk S. The transmissibility of novel Coronavirus in the early stages of the 2019-20 outbreak in Wuhan: Exploring initial point-source exposure sizes and durations using scenario analysis. Wellcome Open Research. 2020;5:17.
Du Z, Wang L, Cauchemez S, Xu X, Wang X, Cowling BJ, et al. Risk for transportation of 2019 novel coronavirus disease from Wuhan to other cities in China. Emerging Infectious Diseases. 2020 May 17;26(5).
Torres-Roman JS, Kobiak IC, Valcarcel B, Diaz-Velez C, La Vecchia C. The reproductive number R0 of COVID-19 in Peru: An opportunity for effective changes. Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease. 2020 Apr 20;101689.
Tsang TK, Wu P, Lin Y, Lau EHY, Leung GM, Cowling BJ. Effect of changing case definitions for COVID-19 on the epidemic curve and transmission parameters in mainland China: a modelling study. Lancet Public Health. 2020 Apr 21;
Muniz-Rodriguez K, Fung IC-H, Ferdosi SR, Ofori SK, Lee Y, Tariq A, et al. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission potential, Iran, 2020. Emerging Infectious Diseases. 2020 Apr 22;26(8).
Zhuang Z, Zhao S, Lin Q, Cao P, Lou Y, Yang L, et al. Preliminary estimating the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2020 Apr 22;
Gatto M, Bertuzzo E, Mari L, Miccoli S, Carraro L, Casagrandi R, et al. Spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: Effects of emergency containment measures. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2020 Apr 23;
Han Y, Liu Y, Zhou L, Chen E, Liu P, Pan X, et al. Epidemiological assessment of imported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the most affected city outside of Hubei Province, Wenzhou, China. JAMA Network Open. 2020 Apr 1;3(4):e206785.
Caicedo-Ochoa Y, Rebellón-Sánchez DE, Peñaloza-Rallón M, Cortés-Motta HF, Mendez-Fandino YR. Effective reproductive number estimation for initial stage of COVID-19 pandemic in Latin American Countries. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2020 Apr 30;
Distante C, Piscitelli P, Miani A. COVID-19 outbreak progression in Italian regions: Approaching the peak by the end of March in northern Italy and first week of April in southern Italy. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020;17(9).
Ndaïrou F, Area I, Nieto JJ, Torres DFM. Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics with a case study of Wuhan. Chaos, Solitons, and Fractals. 2020 Apr 27;109846–109846.
Peirlinck M, Linka K, Sahli Costabal F, Kuhl E. Outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 in China and the United States. Biomechanics and Modeling in Mechanobiology. 2020 Apr 27;
Adegboye OA, Adekunle AI, Gayawan E. Early transmission dynamics of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Nigeria. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020 Apr 28;17(9).
Ivorra B, Ferrandez MR, Vela-Perez M, Ramos AM. Mathematical modeling of the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) taking into account the undetected infections. The case of China. Communications in Nonlinear Science & Numerical Simulation. 2020 Apr 30;105303.
Arons MM, Hatfield KM, Reddy SC, Kimball A, James A, Jacobs JR, et al. Presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections and transmission in a skilled nursing facility. N Engl J Med. 2020 Apr 24;
Bae J-M. A Chinese case of COVID-19 did not show infectivity during the incubation period: Based on an epidemiological survey. Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health. 2020 Mar 2;
Kimball A, Hatfield KM, Arons M, James A, Taylor J, Spicer K, et al. Asymptomatic and presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections in residents of a long-term care skilled nursing facility - King County, Washington, March 2020. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. 2020 Apr 3;69(13):377–81.
Li P, Fu J-B, Li K-F, Chen Y, Wang H-L, Liu L-J, et al. Transmission of COVID-19 in the terminal stage of incubation period: a familial cluster. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2020 Mar 16;
Wei WE, Li Z, Chiew CJ, Yong SE, Toh MP, Lee VJ. Presymptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 - Singapore, January 23-March 16, 2020. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. 2020 Apr 10;69(14):411–5.
Tong Z-D, Tang A, Li K-F, Li P, Wang H-L, Yi J-P, et al. Potential presymptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2, Zhejiang Province, China, 2020. Emerging Infectious Diseases. 2020 May 17;26(5).
Schneider E, Bermingham A, Pebody R, Watson J. SARS, MERS, and other coronavirus infections. In: Heymann D, editor. Control of Communicable Diseases Manual. 20th edition. Washington: American Public Health Association Press; 2015.
Cowling BJ, Park M, Fang VJ, Wu P, Leung GM, Wu JT. Preliminary epidemiological assessment of MERS-CoV outbreak in South Korea, May to June 2015. Eurosurveillance. 2015 Jun 25;20(25):7–13.
Assiri A, McGeer A, Perl TM, Price CS, Al Rabeeah AA, Cummings DAT, et al. Hospital outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus. The New England Journal of Medicine. 2013 Aug 1;369(5):407–16.
Zeng G, Xie S-Y, Li Q, Ou J-M. Infectivity of severe acute respiratory syndrome during its incubation period. Biomedical and Environmental Sciences. 2009 Dec;22(6):502–10.
