Using the two-source capture–recapture method to estimate the incidence and case ascertainment of congenital rubella syndrome in Australia, 1993–2013
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5365/wpsar.2015.6.4.006Abstract
In 2009, the Technical Advisory Group on Immunization and Vaccine Preventable Diseases (TAG) in the Western Pacific Region (WPR) endorsed the 2015 targets for accelerating control of rubella and preventing congenital rubella syndrome (CRS). (1) The global goal outlined in the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) is for five of six WHO Regions to achieve rubella elimination by 2020.(2) At the most recent TAG meeting in June 2015, 2020 was recommended as the target year for achieving rubella elimination in the WPR (unpublished).
Current evidence suggests that rubella is well controlled and may already be eliminated in Australia.(3) CRS is now rare, with an average of one case reported annually over the past decade, occurring mostly in infants of unimmunised immigrant mothers.(4)
Rubella and CRS have been nationally notifiable since 1991 with all states and territories notifying confirmed and probable cases to the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS). The Australian Paediatric Surveillance Unit (APSU) has conducted active surveillance for congenital rubella infection since 1993.
To verify rubella and CRS elimination countries need to ensure that their surveillance systems are sufficiently sensitive to capture almost all cases. This study aims to determine the incidence of CRS in Australia and the sensitivity of CRS case ascertainment in the NNDSS.